500 Home Run Club

3000 hits: Club about to lose its luster

Derek Jeter will reach 3,000 hits any day now, and his inclusion into the 3,000-hit club will only enhance the group. While the 500-home run club has lost its luster with the likes of Gary Sheffield, the 3,000-hit club remains exclusive.

Jeter would be just the 28th player to reach the club. The only squishy member is Rafael Palmeiro, whose home run prowess has been debunked by his use of performance-enhancing drugs. No one really discounts hits because of steroids, though they probably should.

The most recent-vintage players to reach 3,000 hits all would be classified as stars. Jeter. Craig Biggio. Wade Boggs. Rickey Henderson. Cal Ripken. Eddie Murray. Paul Molitor. Robin Yount.

No duds in that group.

After Jeter, Ivan Rodriguez is next in line. I don’t know if Pudge will make it or not. He’s 158 hits short. That’s a lot for a 39-year-old catcher playing part-time these days. Rodriguez’s hit total the last three years: 110, 106, 106. He’s got just 25 this year with the Nationals. He probably will have to play through 2013 to reach 3,000.

Alex Rodriguez is getting in the neighborhood and barring disaster most certainly will make it. He’s 35 and still going strong, just 238 hits shy.

But here’s the screwiest thing you’ll ever see in 3,000 hit discussions. Between the Rodriguezes on the current hits list is a 44-year-old shortstop. Omar Vizquel. Yes, Omar Vizquel. He’s got 2,831 hits. That remains a long way from 3,000, for a guy who’s had 233 hits the past 31/2 years.

But still. Omar Vizquel No. 46 on the all-time hit list, one spot behind Charlie Gehringer and one spot ahead of George Sisler?

No offense to Vizquel, but he’s not and never has been a good hitter. A swell glove, yes. An epic defensive player, yes. But never has Vizquel been so much as mediocre on offense. His career batting average is .273, which is the whole of his offensive prowess.

Vizquel’s career on-base percentage is .299, which is just awful. He’s hit 80 home runs in 23 seasons; his slugging percentage is .354, which is bad. This guy made the major leagues, and stayed in the major leagues, because he’s a defensive whiz.

But now, because of longevity, he’s within sight of one of baseball’s landmark numbers. Every member of the 3,000-hit is or will be in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Palmeiro, for the reasons stated. But that distinction will end if Omar Vizquel scratches out 169 more hits.

The 500 Home Run Milestone: An Introduction - Twinkie Town

With Vlad, if he somehow goes on a tear and hits 14 the rest of the season to finish 2011 with 20 HR, it will put his total at 456.

44 home runs to hit, going into his age-37 season, without a contract. It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s probable. From July onward last year, which was a good year overall, he hit just .265/.310/.419. His first half this year has been worse.

If he were a couple years younger maybe I’d think differently, but unless he rediscovers something it looks like his power is sapped. I’d give him decend odds to get to 480, but not 500.

Cabrera I like, he’s just a long way away. Pujols in 31 and needs just 75 homers—that’s a surprise if he doesn’t make it. But Cabrera needs to stay healthy and continue to produce.

He has 262 now. He’s averaged 36 homers the last three seasons. If he gets to 36 this year, that means going into his age-29 season he’d have 283.

Averaging the same 36 HR per year, he’d reach 500 early in his age-35 season.

Averaging 30 HR per year (after hitting 36 this year), he’d reach 500 early in his age-36 season.

Averaging 25 HR, mid-way through age-37.

For Cabrera yeah, he’s on track, but as I said he’ll need to stay healthy and continue to produce. If he can do that and play until his late 30s, he’ll get there.

I thought it might be interesting to look at the current 500-club members and track what they looked like during their careers. I’ll include the overall rank for the age in question, so guys like Cepeda and Pujols will create gaps in the list because they didn’t make it to 500 for some reason or they’re still playing and haven’t made it yet.

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